Fantasy Football Impact Report: Asante Samuel

July 21, 2008 2:20pm CDT

The Eagles dug deep to sign free agent cornerback Asante Samuel this offseason, to the tune of six years and $57 million, with $20 million guaranteed. The team flew the former Patriot to Philadelphia for breakfast, and had him signed before dinner. They were obviously not taking no for an answer, as the Eagles coaches feel Samuel is the key to an Eagles' turnaround.

The beginning of the end of Samuel and the Patriots began last season when he was slapped with the franchise tag. Samuel made sure the Patriots couldn't do that to him again by sitting out until they agreed to not place the tag on him for a second time if he played 60% of the snaps, or the Pats won 12 games. Obviously, with a 16-0 regular season, Samuel got his freedom. Once the '07 season ended, free of the threat of the dreaded franchise tag, Samuel decided to live up to his tattoo "Get Rich to This", and tested the free agency waters.

NFL CAREER
After being selected from Central Florida in the fourth round in the '03 draft and having to work his way up through the Patriots' depth chart, Samuel may have played with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, and that led

to his "no comment" when asked if he felt appreciated by the Patriots organization. But he was a big part of the Patriots' recent success, and his departure leaves a huge hole in their vaunted defense.

In just 75 NFL games, Samuel has collected 22 interceptions, including 16 in his last two seasons. He also tied an NFL record with three playoff interceptions returned for touchdowns.

His tackle totals actually decreased somewhat last year (44 solos versus 59 the year before), but that's not surprising considering the fact the Patriots defense does not allow opposing offenses much opportunity to put together long drives. Since stepping into a starting role for good in 2005, Samuel had been a rock-solid defender on the Patriots defense and allowed the safeties freedom to support the run. There's really no way to replace his production, as the Patriots will likely find out this season.

TEAM SCENARIO
After the signing, coach Andy Reid showed no hesitation in announcing that Samuel would be starting at left corner in '08. Although that fact should come as no surprise, it was somewhat shocking that Reid pushed long-time Eagle Lito Sheppard to a backup role with so little regard. Maybe part of the reason Reid wanted Samuel was because of what he did to the Eagles in Week 12 in '07, with two interceptions and a touchdown return.
The lowly Eagles secondary tied Houston and Pittsburgh for fewest interceptions in the NFL last season with just 11. They really need a boost, and Samuel is here to turn it around. With Samuel manning the left side and Sheldon Brown the right, no NFL quarterback will be licking their chops at the prospect of facing this team. Brian Dawkins will likely be able to play a little more run support, and Samuel can help cover for strong safeties Quintin Mikell's and Sean Considine's inadequacies in coverage.

2008 UPSIDE
The Eagles defense has always been known as an aggressive, ball-hawking unit, if you can overlook the poor '07 campaign in regards to turnovers. With a strong pass rush led by Trent Cole and more quality depth at defensive back than they have seen in a few seasons, Samuel will have plenty of opportunities. His tackle totals are unlikely to increase much past the 50 solo mark, but he should continue to produce big plays. The cornerback spot in Philadelphia has always produced more than average, and assuming Samuel stays healthy, he should be at least a useable fantasy player. Banking on another eight interceptions is asking a bit much, but 50+ solos and five interceptions would be a welcome sight for Eagles fans. In a league that requires cornerbacks, he's a top-10 player.

2008 DOWNSIDE
There is virtually no downside from an NFL outlook for Samuel, but from a fantasy perspective there are some concerns.

First, you can't overlook that he's a cover corner on a 4-3, non Tampa-2 team. Those two facts limit his upside and potential, unless he can continue producing big plays on a regular basis. Samuel's high mark came in '06 with 59 tackles and 10 interceptions. Other than that year, he never cracked 50 solos, and he's not a guy they use off the corner in blitz situations. He also does not force fumbles. So his value lies strictly as a big-play performer, and big plays are pretty unpredictable.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
In a typical fantasy scenario with two points per solo stop and four per interception, Samuel should not be considered among the players selected as a starter on a fantasy squad. It's a typical newbie mistake to take a cornerback with some positive press clippings. As of this writing, his value is down in the mid-sixties among defensive backs, making him a DB5, or probable waiver wire fodder in most systems. Where his value comes in is if your league is turnover-based, and you receive just one point per tackle. In that case, Samuel's value skyrockets into the top 20-30, simply based on his potential. But there are very few scoring scenarios in which Samuel is going to be one of top guys off the board in the fantasy world. He's best suited as a guy near the back of the draft that you take hoping the move to Philadelphia does wonders for his overall statistical lines.