Fantasy Football Impact Report: DeAngelo Williams

July 24, 2008 8:35am CDT

The 2007 season was supposed to be the coming out party for DeAngelo Williams. What ended up happening was he received a mere 23 more carries than he did as a rookie. In fact, it was less of a workload. He played in 13 games (including two starts) as a rookie. As a sophomore, he played in all 16 games but received zero starts. It wasn’t for a lack of production. The speedy Williams played second fiddle to the aging DeShaun Foster, but he did manage 717 yards on his 144 carries. For those of you mathematically challenged, that’s an impressive 5.0 yards per carry. Add 23 receptions for 175 yards and all was not lost. In the offseason, the Panthers finally made the move people were expecting prior to 2007. They released Foster. That’s the good news for Williams. The bad news is the Panthers spent a first-round pick on Jonathan Stewart out of Oregon, so Williams once again is in a muddled situation heading into training camp.

NFL CAREER
2006: 121 carries for 501 yards (4.1 yards per carry) with one touchdown. He added 33 receptions for 313 yards and another score.

2007: 144 carries for 717 yards (5.0 yards per carry) with four touchdowns. He chipped in another 23 receptions for 175 yards and a score.

TEAM SCENARIO
After finishing 8-8 in 2006, there were some high expectations entering 2007 for the Panthers. A 2-1 start was marred by the season-ending injury to quarterback Jake Delhomme. With Vinny Testaverde, Matt Moore, and David Carr filling the void, the Panthers finished a surprising 7-9.

In 2007, the Panthers were 29th in the league in passing without their leader. At 170.9 yards per game, only Buffalo, Oakland, and San Francisco were more anemic in the passing game. Jake Delhomme attempts to return from Tommy John surgery. While pitchers in baseball usually require a good 18 months recovery before they regain their effectiveness, it’s uncertain how Delhomme will respond in less than a year. The Panthers are equipped with some new weapons in the passing game. Muhsin Muhammad returns to Carolina and is joined by former Seattle Seahawks weapon D.J. Hackett. The two will combine with stud Steve Smith to make an exciting trio in the passing game.

The running game actually kept the Panthers competitive in 2007. At 114.0 yards per game, the Panthers ranked 14th in the league in rushing. Foster and Williams created a 1-2 punch, but it was still surprising to see Foster get almost twice as many carries when he averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry. Entering 2008, the Panthers will once again have a 1-2 punch in the backfield, as rookie Stewart is a big bruising back who’ll combine with the speedy Williams to attempt to improve the efficiency of the running game. The left side of the offensive line returns this time intact, as left tackle Travelle Wharton returns from injury. The Panthers added monstrous rookie Jeff Otah at right tackle. That should give the Panthers versatility, allowing them to run to both sides of the field effectively. Head Coach John Fox will get back to his rock pounding ways.

Defensively, the Panthers were 16th in the league last year, surrendering 324.8 yards per game. Ranking 18th against the run (110.7 yards per game) and 17th against the pass (214.1 yards per game), the Panthers were an uncharacteristically average defense in both areas after sporting the league's 7th best defense in 2006. All eyes will be on Julius Peppers as he looks to put his 3.5 sack season behind him and get back to being a fierce pass rusher with double-digit sack totals. Landon Johnson brings his 109 tackles from Cincinnati to the line backing corps, anchored by rookie Jon Beason and his 106 tackles. Strong safety Chris Henry and his 97 tackles will also be counted on to stuff the run. If Peppers returns to form, the Panthers defense could once again be a force to be reckoned with.

Success or failure likely rests on the right elbow of Delhomme. A healthy return, combined with the new wide receiver additions, will make the Panthers a dynamic offense difficult to stop. Combine that with a rebirth of Peppers, and the Panthers could once again become playoff contenders.

2008 UPSIDE
A former first-round draft choice (27th overall) out of Memphis, Williams clearly has skills. They are obvious in what he produces when given the chance.

2006: 4.1 yards per carry; 5.29 yards per touch
2007: 5.0 yards per carry; 5.34 yards per touch

Give Williams the ball twice, and you have a first down. His speed and elusiveness make him a threat to take it the distance on each touch. In 2007, Williams had a 70-yard run, as well as a 30-yard reception. He averaged 9.5 yards per catch out of the backfield as a rookie. Even in a shared backfield situation, if Williams can up his touches to 200, you’re looking at someone with over 1,000 yard potential and perhaps even double-digit touchdowns. It’s a common problem for many runners in the NFL. They are limited by their opportunity alone.

2008 DOWNSIDE
Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers drafted Stewart for a reason, and that reason is smash-mouth football. The Panthers want to return to their ways from the 2003 season when they had Stephen Davis pounding the football and DeShaun Foster was the elusive change-of-pace back. The end result here is that Stewart will likely be the workhorse, while Williams will provide a change of pace.

In addition, the knock on Williams in his short career has been his inability to pick up the blitz and protect his quarterback. The Panthers saw last year what losing Jake Delhomme can do to the offense, so unless Williams improves in that area, his touches are simply not going to increase. Running back by committee situations are becoming the norm in today’s NFL, and as a result, some backup running backs have decent fantasy value. However, that value is greatly diminished the more that split gravitates toward one back receiving the bulk of the work.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
At this early stage in the summer, it’s a case of better safe than sorry with Williams. His outlook is completely dependant upon the health of Stewart. After offseason surgery on his toe, there still remain some questions whether Stewart will be ready to go in camp. While the prognosis is good, especially for the regular season, a rookie missing camp is never a good thing when it comes to understanding the playbook and recognizing where you’re supposed to be on the field. As a result, Williams could enter the season as the primary back for Carolina, which would vault his value. However, it seems likely that at the very least, Williams will be on an equal touch basis with Stewart and could find himself phased out as nothing more than a third-down runner if Stewart executes the smash-mouth style the Panthers are looking for. Williams, at this juncture, likely projects as a bench running back with upside or possible flex play in deeper leagues. More will be revealed during preseason contests.