Fantasy Football Impact Report: Matt Leinart

July 20, 2008 12:01pm CDT

Do you think Matt Leinart ever wakes up in a cold sweat, regretting the millions and millions of dollars he flushed down the toilet by not coming out of college and becoming the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft by his home-state 49ers? You have to hand it to him, though, for sticking by his USC Trojans in an attempt to win a third straight national championship. Unfortunately for Leinart, they lost the game to Vince Young's Texas Longhorns, and in the process, he sacrificed being the #1 overall pick and lost large coin in doing so. The consolation prize was remaining in the great American southwest, and moving to the desert to helm the up-and-coming Arizona Cardinals. With the weapons the Cardinals have at receiver, perhaps this wasn't such a bad deal after all for Leinart.

NFL CAREER
2006: Twelve games, 2,547 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs, 56.8% completion rate. Leinart's rookie season was marred by an injury to his throwing shoulder. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns and had trouble finding his receivers, as he ranked 24th out of 32 QBs for completion percentage.

2007: Five games, 647 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 53.6% completion rate. For the second consecutive season, Leinart succumbed to injuries. This time it was a fractured left collarbone that shelved him to the Injured Reserve list for the final 11 games of the season.


TEAM SCENARIO

Before becoming head coach of the Arizona Cardinals last year, Ken Whisenhunt worked under Bill Cowher as the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator for three years and was part of their Super Bowl XL winning team in 2005. Last year Whisenhunt did what no previous Cardinals head coach has done in the last nine years; had a non-losing season. Looking back even further, this was only the Cardinals' third non-losing season in the past 23 years. The team seems to finally have a winner with Whisenhunt. Being an offensive-minded coach fit well with the existing pieces that were already in place with wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and running back Edgerrin James. After now spending a year in Whisenhunt's system, the Cardinals offense should chug along with greater efficiency and scoring this season.

Despite being named the starting quarterback by Whisenhunt, Leinart enters his third season with one of the more intriguing training camp battles. He'll be coming under "friendly fire" from veteran signal caller Kurt Warner. Even though Whisenhunt dubbed Leinart the starter, we all saw what happened last year when he was named the "starter." It started with a platoon situation early in the season, and ended when Leinart went down with a season-ending injury to his collarbone.

In Leinart's stead, Warner stepped up his game and put up a season to remember. At 36 years old, Old Man Warner still has a bit left in the tank to dazzle defenses. In 14 games, he produced 3,417 yards and 27 touchdowns. Those are great numbers considering he wasn't a full-time starter until after Leinart went on the IR after Week 5.

The strength of the Cardinals remains their big-play receiving game, comprised of Pro-Bowl wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. For the second time in three years, Fitzgerald has produced 1,400+ yards and 10 TDs, pushing him into rarified air amongst the elite wide receivers. During that time, he's also topped 100 receptions twice. He did, however, miss four games over the last two years, but despite the nagging injuries, he still has produced when called upon. For Fitzgerald's efforts, the Cardinals' brain trust recently backed up a dump truck of money to his house and unloaded $40 million dollars by way of a fat contract extension this offseason. That's great for Fitzgerald, but not so great for fellow wide receiver Anquan Boldin. That type of cash is bound to create some jealousy, and as such, Boldin is hankering for a new contract, as well. Boldin is no Fitzgerald, but his numbers are comparable to Fitzgerald's, so you can see why Boldin thinks he's deserving of a new contract:

Fitzgerald: 44 games, 3,767 yards, 26 TDs
Boldin: 42 games, 3,458 yards, 20 TDs

The Cardinals certainly would be wise to acquiesce to Boldin's contract demands, as Fitzgerald and Boldin form a potent duo, and are arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the league.

In the running game, "The Edge" has gotten a bit dull. Running back Edgerrin James' yardage and touchdowns have gone cold since coming to the hot and arid desert. In his last two seasons playing in Indianapolis, he averaged 1,527 yards, 11 TDs, and 4.4 yards per carry. His first two seasons in Arizona produced an average of 1,191 yards, seven TDs, and 3.6 YPC. We guess the move from a climate-controlled dome stadium to playing on the surface of the sun didn't agree with him too much. James this season will turn 30, a dreaded age for running backs, as their production seems to noticeably decline. Considering the vanilla numbers he's put up while wearing the scarlet and white, that's not good news.

2008 UPSIDE
Leinart's upside obviously depends on if he is in fact the starting quarterback, remains so, and doesn't default back into a platoon situation. Looking at the Cardinals' receivers, they would make just about anyone field general look good. Just look what at they did for quarterback Kurt Warner, as last season he passed for 3,417 yards and 27 TDs, which were his highest numbers in both categories since the 2001 season when he was the NFL's MVP. Are similar numbers possible for Leinart? If he's committed to his rehab, and becomes more of a student of the game rather than a professor of partying, then attaining numbers similar to Warner within the same system would seem possible. He has the potential and the arm to do so. Just look at his career stats from USC:

2003: 3,556 yards, 38 TDs, 9 INTs, 0 rushing TDs
2004: 3,322 yards, 33 TDs, 6 INTs, 3 rushing TDs
2005: 3,815 yards, 28 TDs, 8 INTs, 6 rushing TDs

2008 DOWNSIDE
This past spring, photos surfaced of Leinart partying in a hot tub with some women, and being the point man on a beer bong. Though not illegal, some called into question Leinart's commitment to his craft at a time when he should have been working diligently on his offseason rehab assignments, instead of being "Hollywood" Matt. Cardinals management and some fans certainly expressed their disappointment and hope that it's not a harbinger of similar behavior to come for this young quarterback.

During offseason training activities, Warner has still been getting reps with the first team. Ostensibly, this competition will push him to become a better quarterback. It could also affect his confidence in a negative way if he knows he's not the "man." Undeniably, this must be a trying time for Leinart with the quarterback competition. It's a far cry from his days at USC being the big man on campus.

In a recent interview from Cardinals training camp (Associated Press, June 2, 2008) Leinart said, "I'm not really worried about who's getting the reps, when and where. We did the same thing last year. I'm just really focusing on getting better as a quarterback and helping this team win." That doesn't sound like a particularly confident quarterback, nor does it exhibit outstanding leadership, or the desire to take over the reins and make it "his team."

Anquan Boldin's potential holdout this year could be a big blow to Leinart's ability to grow within this offense. If Boldin holds out, then Fitzgerald will surely face double and triple teams, unless draftee Early Doucet out of LSU can step up right away and contribute like Anquan Boldin did in his rookie year (101 receptions, 1,377 yards, eight TDs). Edgerrin James has been a shadow of his former self in the receiving game since he came to the desert, so it's imperative for this offense to make Boldin happy and redo his contract, because without him, the Cardinals train, and their conductor, Matt Leinart, will suffer.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Leinart's fantasy success this season will depend on a number of things, and it all begins with him. Being the first player on the practice field and the last to leave, studying game film ad nauseam, working hard in the gym, and any other number of cliches will all help Leinart keep focused on one thing: football. The rest of his success will depend on him producing on the field so that Kurt Warner won't even be a thought in Whisenhunt's mind, or a glimmer in his eye. The typical game that Fitzgerald and Boldin bring to the gridiron will buoy Leinart's numbers, but again, if Boldin ends up holding out, the offense in Arizona will look very different, and Leinart's numbers will show it. If you do select Leinart in your draft/auction, it would behoove you handcuff him with Kurt Warner. He's a top-20 QB in most formats, which makes him more of a QB2 on your roster. If Fitzgerald and Boldin are good to go, that bumps him up a bit. This is a classic example of a high-risk, high-reward player.