Fantasy Hoops: Free Agent Moves

July 15, 2008 8:30pm CDT

It has been a month since the world champion Boston Celtics raised the Larry O'Brien trophy over their collective heads, but the NBA that they conquered has already changed. General managers have been looking to match pieces of the puzzle, both big and small, to create the same masterpiece that Celtics' GM Danny Ainge was able to construct a year ago. That Celtics franchise transformed from a 24-win team in 2006-2007 to a 66-win wrecking crew last season, inspiring teams across the board to now weigh the reward far more than the risk in personnel changes. A flurry of big names were scattered during the trade deadline and we have continued to see some impressive (or depressive) moves at the start of this offseason.

From signings to trades, we will cover all of the offseason moves and what type of impact they could have on individual fantasy values. We'll start with the four richest deals thus far.

Gilbert Arenas

The biggest contract handed out this summer was given to perhaps the biggest question mark in the league. Last season the Wizards played better without Arenas (37-32) than with him (6-7). You may have noticed the same trend in your fantasy league. Arenas, thought to be a top-six pick in last year's drafts, teased his owners all season long with promises of comebacks and elite production. Instead, he managed just 13 games and mostly irrelevant performances when he did play. Owners who dropped him after his initial decision to opt for surgery were well-served, as opposed to those who let him soak up a precious roster spot for the bulk of the season. In four playoff appearances, the three-time All-Star contributed a meager average of 10.8 points and 2.8 assists. His left leg, however, saw plenty of action. The troublesome left knee underwent numerous drainings, MRIs, a pinched nerve, and a second surgery in November - just seven months after the first.

Arenas has literally not been on a basketball court or even touched a basketball since his last game on April 27th. Despite all of these blood-red flags, GM Ernie Grunfeld made him one of the highest paid players in the league on July 13th. Regardless of the high hopes his boss has, fantasy GMs should not be caught dishing out a high draft pick for the shoot-first point guard.

Gilbert has shown in the past that he can be a beast in points, threes, steals and free throw percentage while producing respectable rebound and assist rates. However, he is an absolute drain in turnover, block and field goal percentage categories. He consistently ranks in the top-10 in turnovers, and finished first (worst) in the category in 2005-06.

At this point we don't know how healthy Arenas is going to be this season. Nobody does. He recently told ESPN.com that he won't pick up a basketball until August, at the earliest, (Attention, Ernie Grunfeld. You just gave this guy a $111 million contract.) Normally we would tell you to follow his preseason closely, but given his knack for embellishing and coach Eddie Jordan's constant worry, we can confidently predict he won't play much, certainly not hard, and Arenas will tell us all once again that he could win MVP next season.

Other factors working against Arenas? His newly embraced fragility will likely bring his free throw attempts down because he won't be driving to the hole as frequently. Also, teammate Caron Butler has made two consecutive All-Star games and ranked sixth in per game fantasy value last season. Antawn Jamison also made the February showcase and averaged 21.4 points and 10.2 rebounds last season. Will the two players who carried the team to the playoffs last season allow Arenas to return to his 21 shots per game rate that he enjoyed in his last two healthy seasons? Not likely.

At best, Arenas will play the majority of the season, contribute top-20 averages in his four keystone categories (points, threes, steals, and FT%) and bottom-10 rankings in an equally important trio of categories (TOs, FG% and blocks). At this point, given his ever-present question marks, he is probably most deserving of a third-to fourth-round selection, just outside of the top-40. You can probably count on one of your fellow owners overpaying for him in the top-30. Among point guards, he ranks between seventh and 10th on draft day.

We consistently hear about terrible NBA contracts (Stephon Marbury, Jermaine O'Neal, Steve Francis, etc.) and this deal has a strong chance of joining those ranks. Don't let Arenas become your nightmare fantasy selection this fall.

Elton Brand

Brand is moving three time zones east this offseason, but his top-level fantasy production shouldn't go anywhere. Like Arenas, Brand was limited in 2007-2008 after injuring his achilles tendon last summer. In fact, he played in just the last eight games, averaging nearly 35 minutes per night. In his return, he averaged 17.6 points, eight rebounds and 1.9 blocks.

Elton is 100% healthy these days and should have no trouble shaking off the rust. In his last two healthy seasons, his fantasy ranking was actually ahead of wunderkind LeBron James. While he may not be quite at that level in 2008-2009, it's not inconceivable that he could once again rank as one of the top-10 fantasy commodities by season's end.

His new Philadelphia teammates will have mixed effects on his production. Starting with the negative, Brand joins a 76ers squad that ranked last in the league in three-point field goal percentage. Without adding a significant perimeter threat (like Bostjan Nachbar or J.R. Smith), he will see plenty of double teams next season. On the positive side, his new point guard, Andre Miller, is one of the best floor generals in the game and knows how to work it into the post. His new center, Samuel Dalembert, is a solid defender who will hold his own and allow Brand to somewhat conserve his energies on the defensive end.

For a big man, Brand does all a fantasy owner could ask for. Expect 20 and 10 averages to go with good shooting. Over the last five seasons, he has shot 51.4% from the field and 76.6% from the line. He won't hit many threes, but he makes up for it with two blocks, a steal and three assists each night. Adding to his fantasy value, Brand started most of his games at center last year, meaning he will be eligible at two positions (power forward being the other) next season.

Due to his across the board production and center eligibility, it is entirely possible he could land in the first rounds of 12-team drafts. Consider him a top-20 lock with a top-10 upside.

Baron Davis

Davis was a head-to-head assassin last season. Managing a full 82 games for the first time since 2002, he ranked ninth in points and threes, second in steals, and sixth in assists. He also contributed 43 blocks and nearly 400 rebounds. The gaudy numbers overshadow the pedestrian field goal percentage and his turnovers, of which he had the ninth highest mark in the league. The 2007-2008 season was Baron's best year yet, which makes it less difficult to understand why he chose five years and $65 million over one year and $17 million.

This summer he left the fantasy-friendly Don Nelson in Golden State to head back home to Los Angeles and play in the structured system of Mike Dunleavy. The talent and speed on the Clippers cannot compare with what he left behind, and his fantasy numbers will show it. Golden State had the fourth-highest offensive rating last year, while the Clips finished 28th. Dunleavy calls as many plays from the sidelines as any coach in the league and it's not hard to envision a clash between him and his new star.

Don't forget, this is Baron Davis that we're talking about. When things don't go his way, his effort and production both go south, and the Clips already let Elton Brand walk away. Unless they can make another free agent splash, Davis could very well be disgruntled from the start, so there is more risk involved with this pick than usual. With a five-year, $65 million deal inked and an eye on Hollywood, Davis falls out of the Chris Paul-Allen Iverson-Deron Williams-Steve Nash tier and joins the far more efficient, yet less sexy, Chauncey Billups-Jose Calderon tier.

Some optimistic fans may feel that he will simply up his scoring to elite levels, but over his nine-year career, he has hit the 20-point average just three times.

However, the Davis analysis is to be continued. The Clips still have over $12 million in cap space and could still bring a much needed interior presence to the starting lineup. Anything to take the pressure off Davis, the way it was in Golden State, will favor his fantasy projections.

Corey Maggette

Finally, Maggette and coach Mike Dunleavy have parted ways. The two have been in general disagreement for a half-decade, resulting in inconsistent minutes for the former Duke Blue Devil. Over the past four years, Corey has come of the bench 74 games and started 169 others. Despite this, he has managed 19.9 points per game over that span.

Now he joins an offensive guru in Golden State (Don Nelson) and it's ok to expect big things from Nelson's new scoring machine. Maggette will slide between fellow scorers Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson to form a scary perimeter. He should have no problem replacing Baron Davis' 21.8 ppg. Maggette averaged 22.1 last season.

Aside from 1,700 points or so, Maggette's true value to fantasy owners comes at the charity stripe. In just 70 games last season, Maggette hit more total free throws than all but three players in the league. This Jordan-like efficiency can make up for any bum on your fantasy squad that can't hit the freebies. His 45.8 FG%, 5.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal per game are par for the course among starting small forwards. He hit only 78 threes a season ago, but that number will near 100 with the Warriors.

However, before we crown him as the West Coast's Paul Pierce, let's not forget that he came in with just seven blocks and nearly 200 turnovers last season.

Maggette was already an underrated fantasy performer and people may be confused about his value as he heads to a Golden State squad with more scorers than he is used to. However, Don Nelson's players tend to have their best offensive seasons under him and that is what you should expect from Maggette this season. He could go as high as the fifth round, especially for an owner that ends up with an early-round free throw shooting dud like Dwight Howard. Even then, he may turn out to be a steal.