Fantasy Football Impact Report: Greg Jennings

August 18, 2008 2:54pm CDT

Commence your research, compile your rankings, enter the draft room, and attempt to find some semblance of confidence your feelings about Green Bay’s top offensive weapon. With the culmination of recent events sending the great Brett Favre to New York, nearly every fantasy commodity donning green and gold this season is in question, and none may be as affected as Greg Jennings.

Let’s review.

NFL CAREER
The Jennings resume is short but illustrious. He is one of few players at the position making an almost-immediate transition from collegiate star to NFL threat. Coming out of the powerhouse program that is Western Michigan as a 2nd-round draft pick (52nd overall) for the Packers, few were able to predict such a quick progression was possible.

As a rookie in 2006, Jennings made a quick impression, averaging 14.0 yards per reception to take just 45 catches for 632 yards, a strong performance considering the veteran options sharing the depth chart with Jennings that had already built a relationship with Favre. The fantasy world took note and many jumped on the bandwagon, labeling Jennings as a player to own in his sophomore campaign.

Those owners were rewarded, enjoying a fantastic statistical leap for Jennings last season, taking just a few more passes (53) for many more yards (920) and touchdowns, jumping from three as a rook to 12 the following season. The obvious connection between Jennings and Favre took hold and the young target was vaulted up the wide receiver ranks. And while many were prepared to temper expectations upon Favre’s retirement, many more were all too happy to dream of more substantial returns when the future Hall of Famer announced he wanted back in.

Now Favre is with the Jets and we are left to ponder how the heir apparent, Aaron Rodgers, will utilize the prolific offerings Jennings can provide.

TEAM SCENARIO
Outside of the quarterback position, the list of offensive players serving the Packers this season is as strong, if not more so, for the season ahead. The Packers field one of the top offensive lines in the game and will provide Rodgers with a comfortable passing pocket. The rushing game has been solidified with the recent signing of Ryan Grant, the team’s top running back from last season. The opposite side of the field will be manned by veteran wideout Donald Driver, a proven highlight in waiting that will draw a fair share of the defensive focus and allow Jennings to work in man-on-man situations more often than not. The effort is also supported by Donald Lee at the tight end position, an underrated offensive force that will provide the opposition with another target to guard against.

All of the components for repeat offensive success are on hand. The only question lies at quarterback, a question that leaves Jennings with questionable value. All reports indicate Rodgers has the mental acumen and arm strength to ease the transition towards the future, but he is the lone source of unproven production this team is fielding at a starting position. The first-year starter has just 59 pass attempts in the NFL to date, leaving a shallow pool of history from which to draw prognostication. A voice of optimism is based solely on belief rather than fact, and thus we must label Jennings as a commodity that could just as easily regress as surge.

2008 UPSIDE
In terms of opportunity, Jennings presents one of the more enviable scenarios among fantasy receivers this season. He is a player on the rise, showcasing a strong ability to become one of the most feared receivers in the game with an aging veteran serving as the only obstacle between listing as the #2 man on the depth chart and the top spot for a team that has made a living with prolific passing gains. The list of competitors other than Driver, including James Jones, Ruvell Martin, and rookie Jordy Nelson, are inexperienced, just starting to cut their teeth in the professional game.

Jennings has already shown his skills are above and beyond the bulk of the candidates not just in Green Bay but throughout the NFL, and there is every reason to believe he can join the elite at the position. At his best, Jennings could be worthy of selection in the early rounds of nearly every fantasy draft taking place this season, sitting just a few short steps behind top fantasy targets like Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss.

2008 DOWNSIDE
The worst-case scenario could be as gloomy as a complete fall from relevance. If Rodgers finds comfort in any of those three receivers that reside in spaces behind Jennings on the current depth chart, the potential exists for one to join the rise with the Packers’ new starting passer, pilfering passes that could go to Jennings along the way.

Of course, it is possible that Rodgers could suffer complete failure and fail to produce any semblance of competence behind center, and that might be as damaging to Jennings’ efforts as any scenario imaginable.

It is difficult to envision such a fall from grace is possible, much less probable, and it may be more difficult to suggest those worries should lead any fantasy owner to drop Jennings in their list of receiving desires on draft day. His potential alone warrants selection in the first few rounds of the draft, but the drastic change at the most crucial of offensive positions brings risk to be weighed.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
In the end, the age old question of risk-versus-reward must be asked you as watch those elite receivers come off the board on draft day. Jennings has given every indication that he is worthy of respect as the future of the Green Bay organization, a player capable of working as the team’s top weapon of choice. He has displayed almost no flaw in his game and would seem to be the optimal object of desire in almost fantasy league on the planet (traditional, keeper, or otherwise)… and he is just getting started. The fears surround this transition period the Packers now face is certainly worthy of concern, but it should not deter your plans to list him as a commodity to pursue on draft day.