Fantasy Football Impact Report: Willie Parker

August 29, 2008 10:27am CDT

After a terrific campaign in 2006 with 16 total touchdowns (three receiving), Willie Parker was a sure-fire first round pick in most leagues last year. Unfortunately, Parker let a lot of fantasy owners down, with only two trips to the end zone in 2007, both on the ground. However, he still rushed for over 1,300 yards, which prevented him from being a complete bust, but he lost a lot of goal-line love due to durability concerns. Those concerns were realized in Game 16 last season, when Parker broke his tibula.

Parker has carried the rock at least 300 times the last two seasons, as the Steelers were committed to him as their feature back. Heck, even as a timeshare back in 2005, Parker toted the rock 255 times. The upside with Parker is his speed and agility. The downside is that he’s just not that big of a dude at 5-foot-10, 209 pounds. Well, that, and he’s prone to putting the ball on the carpet. He probably wasn’t going to be slated for another 300-carry season, even before the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall in the first round, but without a doubt, the rookie's presence makes the backfield situation a little murkier. Willie should be the primary guy again this season, but don’t be surprised to see some form of running back by committee in the works. That may or may not be such a bad thing.

NFL CAREER
2004: Played in eight games, starting none. Rushed for 186 yards on 38 carries with no touchdowns. Caught three passes for 16 yards and no touchdowns.

2005: Started and played in 15 games for the Steelers. Rushed for 1,202 yards on 255 carries with four touchdowns. Caught 18 passes for 218 yards and one touchdown. Fumbled four times (lost none).

2006: Started all 16 regular season games for the Steelers. Rushed for 1,494-yards on 337 carries and 13 touchdowns. Caught 31 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns. Fumbled seven times (lost five).

2007: Started and played in 15 games for the Steelers. Rushed for 1,316 yards on 321 carries and two touchdowns. Caught 23 passes for 164 yards and no touchdowns. Fumbled four times (lost three).


TEAM SCENARIO
In 2007 under first-year head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers went 10-6 and suffered an early playoff exit to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The strength of the team, not surprisingly with a former defensive coordinator calling the shots, was the defense. They were top-10 in pretty much every category, including second overall in yards allowed. The offense, however, struggled statistically, ranking in the top-20 only in rushing yards (18th overall). Still, the Steelers are one of the most balanced teams (talent-wise) in the NFL. While teams like San Diego, New England and Indianapolis are getting all the short-odds for the crown, the Steelers could easily be in the mix.

If there are any holes on the Steelers, surprisingly, it’s the offensive line. The loss of guard Alan Faneca is a tough one to overcome. While it’s a stretch to call the guys up front “woeful,” they haven’t played great in the preseason thus far. Granted, we all know that preseason play is just that, but thus far, it’s looking like an “opportunity for improvement.” Most running backs are only as good as their offensive line, and a back like Parker is going to depend greatly on the big guys in the trenches.

2008 UPSIDE
Parker is, without a doubt, a talented and relatively proven running back. While 2007 was a step back for Parker (and fantasy owners), he did still average a healthy 4.1 yards per carry. The primary reason for Parker’s slip in touchdowns was his removal from goal line carries. As previously stated, that was due to concerns about his durability (and he broke his leg anyway). Rumor has it that Parker’s back in the mix for goal line duty. How much and whether that sticks has yet to be determined, but the safe money is on Parker at least seeing a little more love at the stripe.

As for his bum leg, Parker has reportedly looked very good in the offseason, despite some modest numbers in the preseason. He appears to have regained his famous burst, and is fighting for yardage. The presence of new arrival Mewelde Moore and first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall might actually help Willie in a couple ways. One, it puts a fire under his backside to produce,. Two, since he is a smaller dude and a bit of a pinball, having some viable backups for relief duty should help him in the long run. Make no mistake, Parker is still the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh.

2008 DOWNSIDE
Without question, the biggest chink in FWP’s armor can be summed up in two words: Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers were in the enviable position of having solid talent and depth pretty much across the board come draft day, and had the luxury of taking the best player available. Mendenhall was an absolute gift at their draft spot, so they jumped at the chance to take him. Mendenhall is a bit raw, but arguably a more complete back than Parker, so it may really only be a matter of time before the rookie overtakes the starting gig. Also, despite the fact that Parker is being considered for at least some goal line packages, Mendenhall has been described as “violent” at the stripe by the coaching staff. Even if Parker sees some time in the money zone, chances are, he won’t be the only one.

Also, Parker’s two biggest weaknesses (besides his diminutive frame) are his blocking and fumbilitis. The fumbles are apparently improving, but if it becomes a trend again, the Steelers do have nice alternatives. There’s also a distinct possibility that Parker could lose time on third downs to either Moore or Mendenhall (or both). That would be a real hit to his value, considering one of the things that make Parker so attractive is his receiving ability – he’s one of the better pass-catchers out of the backfield in the league. There’s also the question of the OL play. Granted, it’s still far too soon to judge whether their lackluster performance is a sign of things to come, but it’s definitely a yellow flag at least.

OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Parker’s just not likely to regain his 2006 form, and therefore, probably will never be a RB1 in fantasy leagues again. Given the talented and fairly crowded backfield, especially Mendenhall, the odds are he’s just an injury or a few too many fumbles away from obscurity or “change of pace” status.

However, Parker is a starting running back with proven home-run-hitting ability. He should retain low RB2/high RB3 status on that merit alone. He will absolutely lose carries to Mendenhall and Moore, but how much exactly is a work in progress. Heck, the coaching staff is reportedly still trying to determine how best to deal with their “nice problem” of having several talented backs on the roster. And the load-sharing, once again, might actually help Parker over the long run. Parker should be a decent second or third round pick and should produce nicely for at least the start of the season, but he carries with him the mandatory “handcuff” of Mendenhall – and when to roll the dice on a first-round, highly touted rookie handcuff is a tough call. The bottom line? Parker should be a productive asset to any fantasy squad, but he has just as many risks as