Looking Back At Three Trade Deadline Deals

August 24, 2008 11:47am CDT

The trade deadline at the end of July is always an exciting time for the fans of teams that are making a run for a playoff spot or trying to establish their stronghold in their division. You can also find some teams who have given up on the season and are set to retool or even rebuild. This year’s end of July fireworks did not disappoint from an excitement standpoint. Let’s take a look back at three deadline deals and the discuss fantasy baseball implications.

Mark Teixeira to the Los Angles Angels
The Atlanta Braves are one of those teams who have given up on the 2008 season. It remains to be seen if the Braves are simply retooling or are in need of a complete rebuilding job, but they felt it necessary to ship Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek. There were contract implications in this deal, as the Braves were worried they wouldn’t be able to re-sign Teixeira in the offseason when he would be a free agent. The old adage of getting something instead of nothing drove this trade home.

Let’s not even talk much about Marek. He’s a 25-year-old minor league pitcher who has never pitched above Double-A. He was a 40th round selection for the Angels (#1,193 overall) in 2004, and has moved to the bullpen after starting his career as a starting pitcher. He strikes out more than a batter per inning, as he has 64 strikeouts in 58.1 innings of work, and holds opponents to a .234 batting average. But, he’s not going to be much of a fantasy force this season and may not even pitch for the big club.

Casey Kotchman is a 25-year-old first baseman who was taken in the first round of the 2001 amateur draft with the 13th overall pick. He was hitting .287 in Los Angeles with 12 home runs this season, and that, in addition to his favorable contract, was enough for the Braves to pull the trigger on this deal. Since joining the Braves Kotchman has underachieved. After 20 games he’s hitting only .157 with two doubles, one triple, and no home runs. The Braves aren’t terribly concerned about statistics for 2008. What they see in Kotchman is a young, talented player who continues to improve his contact rate (84% in 2006, 90% in 2007, and 92.5% in 2008) and his HR/F ratio (6.7% in 2006, 8.1% in 2007, and 9.6% in 2008), and there is hope for a higher batting average and better power numbers in the future.

The Angels already had a huge lead in the American League West prior to dealing for Teixeira. Nobody believes that he’s in Anaheim to clinch the division. Teixeira was brought into town to help the Angels win the World Series. Whether or not Teixeira can prove his worth to the Angels in the playoffs remains to be seen, but so far in 19 games he’s hitting .348 with two doubles, four home runs, and two stolen bases. That’s not too shabby for 69 at-bats.

As of right now, the Angels have gotten the better end of this deal. But, two factors could change that into the favor of the Braves. The first factor is Teixeira’s ability to provide enough offense to win a World Series. Anything less than that for the Angels would be devastating. The other factor looming at season’s end is Teixera’s free agent status. He’s said that he will test the market. If he leaves the Angels, fans will look back and wonder if Kotchman and Marek were too much to give up for a 62-game rental. An Angels World Series ring would ease the pain of losing Teixeira, if that were to happen.

Jason Bay to the Red Sox, Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, Four Prospects to the Pirates
In one of the more interesting deadline deals, three teams got together and shifted a future Hall of Famer, an All-Star, and four prospects around. Jason Bay moved from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Boston Red Sox, Manny Ramirez went to the Los Angeles Dodgers from the Red Sox and Pittsburgh got Craig Hansen ad Brandon Moss from the Red Sox and Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from the Dodgers.

Manny Ramirez was vocal about the fact that he no longer wanted to be in Boston. The future Hall of Fame left fielder was hitting .299 with 20 home runs before the deal but has caught fire in Los Angeles. In 19 games for the Dodgers Manny is hitting .406 with three doubles, six home runs, and one stolen base. And, to show you just how hot he’s been, his 21 RBI in 19 games for the Dodgers are a little less than a third of the 68 RBI he had in Boston. However, he accumulated his 21 RBI in only a fifth of the time. The Dodgers are 11-8 since the arrival of Ramirez, and his presence alone could turn the Dodgers into the team to beat in the National League West.

Jason Bay is definitely not the complete hitter that Manny Ramirez is. David Ortiz has already publicly complained that he’s not getting the same pitches to hit that he was when Ramirez was in the lineup. But, that doesn’t mean Bay is a slouch. In fact, Bay is producing better numbers in Boston than Ramirez was this season. In 18 games, Bay is hitting .347 with three doubles, one triple, four home runs, and three stolen bases. That calculates out to one home run per 20.75 plate appearances. Ramirez was good for a home run per 21.25 plate appearances this season. Nobody is saying that Jason Bay is the next Manny. But nobody is saying that Bay can’t hit, either.

Craig Hansen was the golden child of the Red Sox farm system and was being groomed to be their closer of the future all the way up until the point that Jonathan Papelbon proved that the job was his, for as long as he wanted it. It might have been that fact, or it could just be suspect stuff, but Hansen isn’t proving to be of much fantasy worth. In seven games for the Pirates he’s 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA, one save, and a ghastly 0.25 strikeout to walk ratio. Yes, that’s eight walks to only two strikeouts in 8.2 innings. The closer job is Matt Capps’ when he gets back from injury, and with numbers like Hansen’s he won’t be pitching in too many important roles for the Pirates anyway.

Brandon Moss showed a lot of promise in Boston, filling in nicely and going .295 with five doubles, one triple, and two home runs in 78 at-bats. But Pittsburgh hasn’t been such a positive place for Moss. Since Moss got to Pittsburgh he’s hitting only .213 with four doubles and two home runs in 61 at-bats. The majority of the starts are, most likely, his in left field until the end of the season. But, he’s not really rosterable in fantasy leagues while he’s hitting .213. And, if he stays at such a low batting average he’s likely to see some competition from late-season call ups in 2008 or surely in spring training next year.

Andy LaRoche is finally getting some playing time and is getting it next to his brother on the infield for the Pirates. LaRoche has been a top prospect for the Dodgers for years, but he’s been unable to show anything in the majors due to injuries (shoulder and back problems) and ineffectiveness once he does get opportunities. He hit 18 home runs in Triple-A Las Vegas last season in only 311 plate appearances. He also had 18 doubles while hitting .309. But his .226 average for Los Angeles in 115 plate appearances made him expendable in this deadline deal. He’s only 25 years old, and projects as a 20 plus home run guy with good patience at the plate. But his .160 batting average since joining the Pirates will keep him off any fantasy roster. The only way you can take a flyer on this guy is if you’re in a very deep league and a good number of keepers are available to you.

Bryan Morris is a starting pitcher that was taken in the first round (26th overall pick) of the 2006 first year player draft. He’s never pitched above Single-A baseball, and won’t get a chance to play in Pittsburgh anytime soon. He’s 2-6 this season in 20 starts with a 3.47 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 96 innings of work.

It’s going to be very difficult to determine a winner of this trade. For 2008, it’s obviously not the Pirates. But a year or three down the road these prospects could emerge and prove this to be a great deal for them. The Red Sox had to get rid of Manny. He was killing morale and not even trying at times. It’s tough to lose one of the best pure hitters to ever live, but it needed to be done. If Bay can keep up the pace he’s been on since joining Boston, Red Sox Nation will be happy. Ramirez has transformed the Dodger team into a division title hopeful. And he might have just given them enough ammunition to become the team to beat out west. His upcoming free agency will have a lot to say about whether or not the Dodgers did well with this trade.

Xavier Nady to the Yankees
Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte were sent to the New York Yankees for Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jose Tabate. Once again, here are the Pirates taking on a bunch of prospects for a veteran who would most likely have left once given the chance.

Karstens was once a top prospect in the Yankees organization, but injuries and a low strikeout rate held him back and ultimately moved him down the organizational depth chart. In Pittsburgh he’s being given a chance to pitch every week and making the most of it. He’s 2-2 in four starts with a 2.25 ERA. His low strikeout rate (11 strikeouts in 28 innings) is worrisome, as is his 21.8% hit rate. You can ride Karstens while he’s hot, but his ERA is destined to skyrocket.

Ross Ohlendorf is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA in combined Triple-A starts for the Yankees and Pirates. He has a 4.50 strikeout to walk ratio (54:12) in 56.0 innings pitched. That kind of success should get him a look going into 2009, but 2008 shouldn’t bring much fantasy love to him.

Daniel McCutchen in 26 minor league starts this season is 10-11 with a 3.48 ERA. He has a 3.80 strikeout to walk ratio (137:36) in 160.1 innings of work. See Ohlendorf above for 2008 fantasy value and 2009 outlook.

Jose Tabata is a 20-year-old prospect and has been ranked as high as #2 on the Yankees top prospect list. He’s been hurt over the past two years, so nobody is sure of his potential. He’s shown that he can hit for average, as he hit .307 in Advanced Single-A last season and is hitting .275 in Double-A this season, but his power hasn’t shown up yet (only five home runs last season and six this season). Tabata is still a good ways off from Major League at-bats, so forget about him for your 2008 fantasy rosters.

Xavier Nady has been lighting up the scoreboard since joining the Yankees. In 24 games he’s hitting .384 with five doubles, seven home runs, and 19 RBI. He’s a must start in all fantasy leagues for his power potential and his hitting ability. In the month of August he’s gotten at least one hit in all but three games.

Damaso Marte hasn’t pitched well since joining the Yankees. In eight innings of work he’s given up nine earned runs (10.13 ERA) and is 0-2 with a 1.83 strikeout to walk ratio (11:6). Even in the deepest of fantasy leagues, Marte shouldn’t be on your roster.

For 2008, the Yankees sure did get the better end of this deal. Nady is hitting like an All-Star, and while he may not be able to help the Yankees catch up in the Wild Card race, he’s sure doing more for New York than he would have done for the Pirates. It’ll be years before we find out if any of the prospects sent to the Pirates will pan out.