The Nine

August 21, 2008 8:55pm CDT

In this report, we'll touch on nine relevant topics in the world of baseball to help to fill in the blanks around the standard 5x5 measures that most fantasy leagues track.

First - Save Percentage
So much is made of the fact that Francisco Rodriguez leads baseball with 48 saves and that he is on pace to eclipse the single-season record of 57 set by Bobby Thigpen. Should he receive "props" for this? Absolutely. But his overall total is merely a reflection of his chances. He has been very effective with a 91% conversion rate (48 for 53), but there are a whole host of others who have been more competent at converting their opportunities.

Brad Lidge - 100% (31 saves)
Mariano Rivera - 97% (28 saves)
Joe Nathan - 92% (34 saves)
Brian Wilson - 92 % (33 saves)
Joakim Soria - 92% (33 saves)

While the big save totals are flashy, effectiveness should count, as well.


Second - Park Factors
Quick, name the park that has been the best this season for run scoring. Nope, it's not Coors Field (second) or Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia (15th). In fact, it's Chase Field in Arizona. Here are the top-5: (1.000 is average, a number above it is better than average. As an example, a 1.300 mark would mean it was 30% better than average)

1.234 Arizona
1.181 Colorado
1.154 Yankee Stadium
1.132 Boston
1.118 Wrigley Field

Which parks have been the best for pitchers?

0.756 San Diego
0.776 Los Angeles
0.838 Pittsburgh
0.876 Minnesota
0.889 Seattle


Third - Extra Base Hits

Carlos Quentin leads the majors with 35 home runs thanks to a stretch of 13 bombs in his last 30 games. Therefore, would it surprise you to learn that he ranks just 8th in extra base hits with 59? Here are those in the top-5:

69 Ryan Braun
67 Chase Utley
66 Lance Berkman, Aubrey Huff
64 Nate McLouth
If you are looking for balanced production, Ryan Braun and Chase Utley are the only two hitters with at least 30-doubles and 30-home runs, though Jermaine Dye is just one home run short of joining the group.


Fourth - Batting Average Against
Who have been the toughest pitchers to hit so far this season? With all the dominating hurlers out there, this list is sure to be one that elicits some head scratching. Here are the top-5 in lowest BAA amongst hurlers who have tossed 120 or more innings.

.210 Justin Duchscherer, Ryan Dempster
.213 Daisuke Matsuzaka
.219 Armando Galarraga
.220 Tim Wakefield
If you guessed those five names, we're going to start calling you Nostradamus.

Here are some of the marks of pitchers you might have expected to see on the list.

.227 Tim Lincecum
.229 Edinson Volquez
.234 Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb
.236 Dan Haren
.242 CC Sabathia
.248 Cliff Lee

Fifth - BABIP, Pitchers
We discuss this measure all the time. The major league average is right around .290-300, and most pitchers generally revert to that number over time. Some pitchers maintain a mark that is far better than that in their career if they are dominant, while other fall well above the baseline if they serve up meatballs. In general, a pitcher that is well below this baseline can be said to be pitching with a bit of "luck", be it just random fluctuation or skill induced. Here are the current leaders for pitchers with at least 120 innings.

.225 Justin Duchscherer
.226 Tim Wakefield
.236 Armando Galarraga
.237 Shaun Marcum
.239 Dave Bush, Gavin Floyd
Since none of those pitchers can be described as having "filthy" stuff, it is reasonable to expect some regression in their performance the rest of the way if we use history as a guide.

Which pitchers have been a bit "unlucky" and therefore could improve slightly down the stretch, with everything else being equal (no injuries, etc)?

.315 A.J. Burnett
.313 Bronson Arroyo
.312 Roy Oswalt
.310 Josh Beckett

Sixth - Tough Loses and Close Wins
What is a tough loss? It is a loss in which a pitcher hurls a quality start (defined as throwing at least six innings while allowing three or fewer runs). Whether or not a loss in a quality start is really a "tough" loss or not is debatable (is three runs in six innings really quality when you consider that would result in a 4.50 ERA?). For our purposes here we will just go with it. Here are the "Tough Loss" leaders.

7 Javier Vazquez
5 Greg Maddux, Braden Looper, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Justin Duchscherer, Jake Peavy, Aaron Harang, Jeremy Guthrie, Ian Snell, Joe Blanton, John Lannan, Nick Blackburn
Javier always seems to fall just short of greatness despite always posting numbers that would seem to suggest otherwise. This year has been more of the same, as his production has been solid, but unspectacular (10-10, 4.34 ERA, 159 K 1.30 WHIP). A bunch of the guys mentioned have been average to poor even with the tough loses (Maddux, Looper, Snell and Blanton), but how different would things look for a couple of these guys if we removed two loses and added two wins since they each had five tough loses?

13-5 Santana
12-6 Duchscherer
12-7 Guthrie

Just goes to show you that predicting wins is almost impossible to do, so it's best to target skills versus wins on draft day.


Seventh - Batting Average with Runners in Scoring Position
An often overlooked number for batters is their performance with RISP. Some people believe in a batters ability to be "clutch." Others do not, as there have been a series of studies that have basically left the impression that the question still hasn't been answered. Regardless of luck, skill or some combination thereof, here are the leaders in batting average with runners in scoring position.

.423 David DeJesus
.413 Ian Kinsler
.386 Justin Morneau
.377 Melvin Mora
.366 Lance Berkman
.359 Garret Anderson
.358 Kevin Youkilis
.350 Joe Mauer
Two of the names that stick out are the leader, DeJesus, and Anderson. DeJesus has only 57 RBI on the year, thanks to spending 337 of his 394 AB this season in the leadoff spot. As for Anderson, he is quietly hitting .288 with 70 RBI. This is the 13th straight season that Anderson has totaled at least 70 RBI, joining Manny Ramirez, Carlos Delgado and Alex Rodriguez as the only four men to accomplish the feat. Chipper Jones is eight RBI away from joining the club, as well.

Who have been some of the batters that have failed to come through when the chips were down?

.189 Wily Taveras
.184 Jeff Francoeur
.203 Adrian Beltre
.205 Jason Giambi
.213 Miguel Tejada
.215 Hanley Ramirez
Those are some pretty big names struggling to hit their weight.


Eighth - BABIP, Hitters
Since we looked at pitchers, might as well look at hitters as well, right?

.384 Milton Bradley
.380 Matt Kemp
.379 Matt Holliday
.377 Chipper Jones
.370 Fred Lewis
.361 Lance Berkman
.352 Johnny Damon

A couple of quick notes:

Kemp is second in baseball with an insanely high .380, though that mark actually pales in comparison to his .411 mark of last season.

Holliday hit .340 with a .377 BABIP last season. This year he is hitting .344 with a .379 BABIP mark.

Fred Lewis hit .287 last year with a .344 BABIP, numbers that resemble his work this year, as well (.285 / .370).

Here are a few names of guys who have struggled for hits.

.243 Adam Dunn
.246 Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi
.264 Nick Swisher
.271 Robinson Cano, Ryan Howard
.276 Jimmy Rollins

Ninth - Home Run to Fly ball Ratio
The major league average for HR/F ratio is about 9-10%. Of course, that number takes into account slap hitters like Juan Pierre and mashers like Adam Dunn, but 9-10% is the average (though, of course certain hitters are able to set baselines much higher than that for themselves - Dunn, as an example, owns a 22.9% career mark). Here are the current leaders.

27.0 Jack Cust
26.5 Ryan Howard
25.8 Adam Dunn
24.7 Milton Bradley
22.1 Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Ludwick
21.5 Josh Hamilton
21.3 Jim Thome
21.1 Adrian Gonzalez
20.5 Carlos Delgado
20.4 Hanley Ramirez

Where is major league home run leader Carlos Quentin? He is just off the list at 19.8%. Jermaine Dye and his 29 home runs come in at 16.3%. Thirty home run man Chase Utley is well down the list at 14.9%, and only one player in baseball with 25 home runs is lower than that with Aubrey Huff at 14.9%.