27 in 2008: Hitters

September 29, 2008 5:58pm CDT

Back in the first week of April, I wrote an article discussing the myth that players that are 27 years of age enjoy a "breakout" campaign called 27 in 2008. In what follows, I will review the players discussed in that article to determine, on a micro level, if players really do produce their best seasons when they are 27-years-old.

THE PLAYERS
Rocco Baldelli, OF, Tampa Bay (.263-4-13-12-0 in 80 AB)
A completely lost season for the one-time future star, Baldelli is just trying to overcome his mysterious mitochondrial disorder in order to have a normal life. He may never be able to be anything more than a bench player given that the condition saps his strength and energy.

Hank Blalock, 1B/3B, Rangers (.287-12-38-37-1 in 258 AB)
For the second straight season Blalock was held to fewer than 260 AB. He finished on fire, hitting .337-8-23-19 with a 1.079 OPS in his last 24 games, but it's now been three years since he hit 20 home runs or recorded 90 RBI. His future is murky solely because of the injury woes.

Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay (.273-8-57-69-25 in 443 AB)
Sure he was injured and limited to just 443 AB, his lowest total since his rookie campaign, but when on the field he was far from a breakout performer, as he produced the worst season of his career.

Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh (.318-15-69-71-2 in 431 AB)
Yahtzee. After a nice support season in part-time duty in 2007 (.274-9-32 in 252 AB), Doumit exploded for one of the better seasons by a catcher in baseball with career-highs in average, OBP (.357), SLG (.501) and OPS (.858). A real breakout star.

Chris Duncan, OF, St. Louis (.248-6-27-26-2 in 222 AB)
His season was ruined by a back issue that eventually ended up in surgery for a herniated disc. After back-to-back 20-home run seasons, Duncan's failure to drive the ball at all when on the field (.365 SLG) was terribly disappointing.

Ryan Garko, 1B, Cleveland (.273-14-90-61-0 in 495 AB)
A darling of quite a few pundits this season, Garko needed a great finish to end up with respectable numbers. Over his final 47 games he hit .331-6-40 to turn around a poor first half that presented a .241-7-45 line with a .668 OPS through his first 84 games.

Joey Gathright, OF, Kansas City (.254-0-22-41-21 in 279 AB)
Sure he produced the 21 steals, which were a nice bonus in AL-only leagues, but otherwise he was a useless hitter who failed to reach his career averages in batting average (.263), OBP (.311 to .328), SLG (.272 to .304) and OPS (.584 to .631).

Jonny Gomes, OF/DH, Tampa Bay (.182-8-21-23-8 in 154 AB)
His biggest hits this year came in brawls with other clubs. After averaging 19 home runs and 54 RBI the past two seasons he failed to even record 50 percent of that production this season.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit (.282-22-66-112-10 in 549 AB)
Had a slow start due to injury, but the bottom line is that he failed to reach last year's levels in batting average, home runs, RBI, runs, hits, doubles, triples, steals, SLG and OPS. It was a solid year, but nowhere near his magnificent 2007 effort (.320-23-74-122-26).

Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas (.304-32-130-98-9 in 624 AB)
One of the breakout stars and best stories of '08, Hamilton led the AL in RBI with a simply massive first full season at the major league level.

Maicer Izturis, 2B/3B/SS, Anaheim (.269-3-37-44-11 in 290 AB)
He tore a thumb ligament that knocked him out in mid August, but was still just under his previous two-season total of 334 AB. He also failed to match all his 5x5 marks other than steals from 2007 (.289-6-51-47).

Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida (.247-32-93-67-1 in 477 AB)
It pains us to say a guy who hit .247 with a .812 OPS and a terrible 0.30 BB/K ratio had a breakout campaign, but setting career-highs in home runs, RBI and runs scored signals that he did indeed provide solid value in what can be called the best season of his career.

Felipe Lopez, 2B/SS, Cardinals (.283-6-46-64-8 in 481 AB)
Lopez's numbers were poor, and they would have been terrible if he didn't go nuts after joining the Cardinals. Lopez has hit .385 in 156 AB with the Cards and destroyed all opposing pitchers in September, hitting .414 in 99 AB. This was the first time in four years that he failed to record 20 steals.

Austin Kearns, OF, Washington .217-7-32-40-2 in 313 AB)
Face it, Kearns will never reach the heights that were once predicted of him. This was yet another down season in which he missed significant time due to injury, and it can easily be argued that this was the worst season of his big league career, and for a guy who has struggled to live up to expectations as much as Kearns has, that's certainly saying something.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego (.260-23-84-71-0 in 624 AB)
An extra 140 AB this season only produced five more home runs and 10 more RBI than in '07. Plus, Kouzmanoff saw a batting average reduction of .015 points, and OBP loss of .030 and a SLG loss of .024 in year two in San Diego.

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota (.302-23-129-97-0 in 620 AB)
A fantastic season that has Morneau squarely in the AL MVP talk is the second best of his career as he posted a .321-34-130-97-3 line to win the MVP in 2006.

Jeremy Reed, OF, Seattle (.269-2-31-30-2 in 286 AB)
Reed hit .285 against right-handers but simply cannot solve lefties (.115 in 26 AB this year and .157 in 159 career AB). Where did the guy go that went 23-for-58 (.397) in his rookie season?

Alex Rios, OF, Toronto (.291-15-79-91-32 in 635 AB)
Rios had a nice finish to the year, hitting .315 over his last 53 games. Rios also, finally, started hitting for power with 11 home runs and .542 SLG in the second half after an awful first half (four home runs, .401 SLG). Three year lows in average, home runs, RBI, OBP, SLG and OPS aren't simply erased by his 32 steals.

Cody Ross, OF, Florida (.260-22-73-59-6 in 461 AB)
His effort was really only a breakout one because of the volume of at-bats he received (he had just 423 the previous two seasons). Ross used the extra playing time to almost double his previous bests in home runs (12) and RBI (39) which helped to offset the middling batting average. He also stole a career-best six bags.

Kelly Shoppach, C, Cleveland (.261-21-55-67-0 in 352 AB)
With the injury to Victor Martinez, Shoppach stepped up and hit 21 home runs, the most of any catcher in the American League. He played so well, in fact, that the club might enter 2009 with he, and not Martinez, behind the dish (Martinez could play first base or end up at the DH spot if Travis Hafner doesn't rebound from his shoulder issues).

Chris Snyder, C, Arizona (.237-16-64-47-0 in 334 AB)
Snyder did produce four more home runs and 17 more RBI than in '07, but his average fell .015 points while he racked up 34 more K in just eight more AB. A solid source of pop in NL-only leagues, he may never have a breakout season.

Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Chicago (.219-24-69-86-3 in 497 AB)
His first season in Chicago was a failure when judged by his average, OBP (.332), SLG (.410) and OPS of .743 (all career worst's). Still scored more than 80 runs with at least 22 home runs for the third straight season.

Mark Teahen, OF, Kansas City (.255-15-59-66-4 in 572 AB)
It's time to be honest here. It looks like Teahen has already had his career-best season in 2006, with a .290-18-69-70 line in just 393 AB. He has an extra 179 AB this season and still couldn't match the HR, RBI or runs scored marks of that '06 season.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, Anaheim (.308-33-121-102-2)
Tex was simply tremendous yet again this season and is in line to make well over $100 million this offseason. Still, it wasn't as good as his 2005 effort that produced a .301-43-144-112 line.

Chad Tracy, 1B/3B, Arizona (.267-8-39-25-0 in 273 AB)
Hampered by knee issues early on, Tracy had a solid start upon his return, hitting .309 with a .821 OPS over his first 37 games before really slowing down as the season wore on (.233 with a .642 OPS).

Shane Victorino, OF, Philadelphia (.293-14-58-102-36 in 570 AB)
Shane had a strong second half (.311 with nine home runs leading to a .852 OPS) leading to some tremendous overall numbers. Can he improve next year in his third full season?


RESULTS
There were 26 players reviewed in total. Here is the breakdown.

Breakout players (Six total): Ryan Doumit, Josh Hamilton, Mike Jacobs, Cody Ross, Kelly Shoppach, Shane Victorino.

Failed to breakout (13 total): Ryan Garko, Joey Gathright, Jonny Gomes, Curtis Granderson, Felipe Lopez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Justin Morneau, Jeremy Reed, Alex Rios, Chris Snyder, Nick Swisher, Mark Teahen, Mark Teixeira
Injured players (seven total): Rocco Baldelli, Hank Blalock, Carl Crawford, Chris Duncan, Maicer Izturis, Austin Kearns and Chad Tracy.


Of the 26 players only six broke out (23.1%).
Of the 26 players thirteen failed to break out (50.0%).
Of the 26 players seven were injured (26.9%).


Now, it can be argued that for guys like Morneau and Teixeira - players who were are already established stars - producing a breakout campaign would be difficult. But the fact of the matter is, both batters have had better seasons, and as a result can clearly be deemed to have failed to live up to the general breakout theory.

In closing, reviewing a handful of batters and claiming that proves or disproves anything would be wrong. But in this case the evidence we reviewed seems to point to the fact that players at the age of 27 show no magical gain in their performance. More research needs to be done in order to truly answer the question, but our cursory review shows that the belief might actually be a myth.