27 in 2008 - Pitchers

September 30, 2008 11:45am CDT

Back in the first week of April I wrote an article discussing the myth that players that are 27 years of age enjoy a “breakout” campaign called 27 in 2008 - Pitchers. In what follows, I will review the players discussed in that article to determine, on a micro level, if players really do produce their best seasons when they are 27 years of age.


Click here to read PART I of this on 27 in 2008 - Hitters.


THE PITCHERS

Scott Baker, Minnesota (11-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 141 K in 172.1 IP)
Some think he is the best arm, other than Francisco Liriano, that the Twins have. He was extremely consistent throughout the year with nearly identical numbers before the All-Star game (3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and after (3.43 / 1.20).

Brian Bannister, Kansas City (9-16, 5.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 113 K in 182.2 IP)
We love the guy because he actively studies sabermetrics, but the performance was just brutal this year after last season's great work (12-9, 3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP).

Jason Bergmann, Washington (2-11, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 96 K in 139.2 IP)
He certainly didn’t pitch as poorly as that record indicates, but he also wasn’t someone you wanted anywhere near your pitching staff, either.

Joe Blanton, Philadelphia (9-12, 4.69 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 111 K in 197.2 IP)
Blanton did go 4-0 with the Phillies, but he failed to record 12 victories for the first time in four seasons with an ERA and WHIP that were below the major league average (4.33 and 1.39).

Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore (8-10, 5.25 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 95 K in 180 IP)
Never has so much talent done so little in terms of production. His K/BB was a comical 1.06 while his K/9 plummeted to 4.75. Book it, his arm is injured.

Kevin Correia, San Francisco (3-8, 6.05 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 66 K in 110 IP)
Brutal effort. Not much else can be said here, as he failed miserably to build on last year's strong second half (3.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP).

Jeff Francis, Colorado (4-10, 5.01 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 94 K in 143.2 IP)
Bugged all year by a wonky shoulder, Francis was but a shell of his former self after a 17-win effort in 2007. It still pays to be wary of taking any Rockies pitchers.

Shawn Hill, Washington (1-5, 5.83 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 39 K in 63.1 IP)
Hill was troubled all season by a mysterious issue with his forearm that has sidelined him since June 24th. A pathetic follow-up to a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2007.

Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles (5-3, 2.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 96 K with one SV in 80 innings)
Dominating. That is what you say about a hurler who holds batters to a .204 average while producing a 10.80 K/9 rate. After a season of 30 innings and a 7.42 ERA in ’07, this performance certainly was a bit shocking.

Noah Lowry, San Francisco (DNP)
Lowry has had forearm, and more recently elbow, surgery to deal with multiple issues in his throwing arm. The Giants are hopeful he will be ready to go in 2009, but after a completely lost ’08 we wouldn’t be counting on it.

John Maine, New York (10-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 122 K in 140 IP)
Maine ended the year on the shelf with a bum shoulder while throwing 51 fewer innings than last season, but he made 25 starts so we didn’t consider him to be “injured” in the final rankings. Ended up with a worse ERA and WHIP than in 2007 (3.91 / 1.27) with a lower K/9 mark (7.84 compared to 8.48) and K/BB ratio (1.83 compared to 2.40).

Pat Neshek, Minnesota (0-1, 4.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 15 K in 13.1 IP)
Neshek suffered a partially torn elbow ligament that caused his season to be a complete disappointment after his magnificent 2007 campaign (7-2, 2.94 ERA, 1.01 WHIP with 74 K in 70.1 IP).

Oliver Perez, New York (10-7, 4.22 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 180 K in 194 IP)
Solid but nothing close to resembling the pitcher he was back in 2004 for the Pirates (12-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 239 K).

Mark Prior, San Diego (DNP)
Had another surgery, this time on his shoulder. What could have been…

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis (11-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 91 K in 132 IP)
If not for an injury to his finger, he likely would have ended up being a breakout performer this season. But alas, he was injured and didn’t truly break out, even with the solid campaign.

C.J. Wilson, Texas (2-2, 6.02 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 41 K, 24 SV in 46.1 IP)
Wilson set a career high with 24 saves, but if not for the opportunity to rack up saves, there would be nothing at all to like with this effort that was simply terrible.


RESULTS

There were 16 pitchers reviewed in total. Here is the breakdown.

Breakout pitchers (two total): Scott Baker, Hong-Chih Kuo

Failed to breakout (10 total): Brian Bannister, Jason Bergmann, Joe Blanton, Daniel Cabrera, Kevin Correia, Jeff Francis, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Adam Wainwright, C.J. Wilson

Injured players (four total): Shawn Hill, Noah Lowry, Pat Neshek, Mark Prior


Of the 16 pitchers only two broke out (12.5%).
Of the 16 pitchers 10 failed to break out (62.5%).
Of the 16 pitchers four were injured (25.0%).


In closing, reviewing a handful of pitchers and claiming that proves or disproves anything would be wrong. But in this case the evidence we reviewed seems to point to the fact that players at the age of 27 show no magical gain in their performance. More research needs to be done in order to truly answer the question, but our cursory review shows that the belief might actually be a myth.