5 Questions Owners Should Be Asking (But Aren’t)

September 6, 2008 11:30am CDT

If you have played fantasy football for any length of time, you understand the importance of perspective. There are many components used to build the machine that is the NFL, and each and every one of those pieces plays a role in the game. As such, they should all be included in your choice of perspective for the season to be.
With that in mind, it would be wise to look beyond the potential of the individual and instead focus on those peripheral contributors that provide beneficial work environments.

Here are five questions that do just that, representing debates and dilemmas the casual fan might overlook in spite of the insight the answers can provide into the potential of those players that will fill your fantasy roster.

1. Can fullback Tony Richardson bring the Jets’ rushing attack back to prominence?

In 2001 Kansas City rusher Priest Holmes averaged 4.8 yards per carry, taking 327 carries for 1,555 yards. Holmes topped that effort in 2002, averaging 5.2 yard per carry with 313 carries for 1,615 yards. In 2003 it was more of the same: 4.4 yards per carry, 320 handoffs for 1,420 yards. Larry Johnson joined the fray in 2004, averaging 4.8 yards per carry for 581 yards on 120 carries with Holmes hording 196 attempts for 892 yards (4.6 yards per carry). LJ excelled once again in 2005, taking 336 carries for 1,750 yards (5.2 yards per carry). Last season, fans were amazed by Adrian Peterson’s rookie campaign in Minnesota, rushing for 1,341 yards on 238 carries, an average of 5.6 yards per carry, an unbelievable effort for a first timer.

All were supported and enhanced by the lead-blocking talents of Tony Richardson.

This season the Jets have hired Richardson to join their cause and help improve one of the more disappointing running offenses of last season. The headlines and drama have surrounded another well-known addition, but the decision to hire Richardson may be the most influential change this team will enjoy in ’08. The production of those primary rushers that have followed Richardson through rushing lanes in the past rank among the best single seasons the position has ever seen, and now Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are hoping to ride that train as well.

The Jets averaged just 3.8 yards per carry as a team last season, a number added by Washington’s 5.0 mark in the category. They ranked 19th in the league with 106.3 rushing yards per game, but totaled just six rushing touchdowns during the regular season, 30th in the NFL. Those numbers must improve if the signing of Brett Favre is going to be maximized with a run to the playoffs, and Richardson is going to be the key to turning those dreams into a reality.

All indications suggest Jones stands to benefit the most from the addition of Richardson. He is riding a string of three consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 rushing yards, but there was a noticeable dip in his production last season, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. The offensive line struggled as youthful starters (namely tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and center Nick Mangold) needed time to mature and the Jets failed to provide a capable fullback to help cover those discrepancies. This season that unit should be improved and the addition of Richardson assures additional support will be there if needed.

That, plus the potential rise of a threatening pass attack, should put Jones back in the good graces of fantasy owners. We get our first opportunity to evaluate their potential in real game action this Sunday as they face a lackluster Miami defense, marking Jones as a player you may want to gamble on in Week 1.

2. Will Cory Procter struggle to fill the needs at left tackle in Dallas?

The woes of preseason football will often be relayed in the stories of injuries that might have otherwise been avoided, and for the Dallas Cowboys, that is case for left guard Kyle Kosier. In the team’s third preseason game of the season against the Houston Texans, Kosier suffered a sprained right foot as well as a hairline fracture in that foot. Doctors report he will miss at least one month of action, but six weeks is a more reasonable estimation of his necessary recovery period. At face value it may seem like a recoverable loss, but when you consider Kosier has been starting at left guard for each and every snap the Cowboys have taken since 2002, his rookie season, it is difficult to imagine just how concerning this injury may be.

One must review the numbers of the Dallas rushing attack to understand the influence Kosier had on this team. For instance, the Cowboys enjoyed a wonderful season from running back Marion Barber, averaging 4.8 yards per carry to make efficient use of just 204 carries. More often than not, Barber was waiting patiently behind Kosier, waiting for the hole to open, and rare was the occasion when they failed. A quick review of the passing offense also shows Kosier was a solid contributor in pass protection, working to protect Tony Romo’s backside with numbers that suggest he did it well, allowing just 24 sacks (8th in the NFL) in 2007.

With Kosier out of commission, the 'Boys will turn to Corey Procter to fill the void, making the first start of his NFL career in Week 1 versus Cleveland. The team has traded for veteran Montrae Holland in the last week, but the team feels he needs time to absorb the offense before he can be inserted as a starter.

Procter has been used as the backup at both guard positions as well as at center, but his overall body of work leaves questions. He has average skills and seems likely to struggle as perennial Pro-Bowl invitee Shaun Rogers will be taking his place on the other side of the line. While that certainly seems to suggest reason for concern, there is no need to panic. The Cowboys are going to give this kid a shot to perform against one of the elite run stuffers in the league, and if he can pass that test, it only deepens an offensive line that already ranks as one of best in the game. If he struggles (and the leash may be short), there is no reason preventing Holland from taking the role and performing at a reasonable level.

In other words, keep Barber in the lineup, but if there are problems in Week 1, it is a scenario to track moving forward. Kosier wont’ be coming back for some time, thus the implications of struggle may require an adjustment in roster strategy.

3. Is Stephon Heyer ready for starting duties at right tackle in Washington?

We are blessed as an early Thursday night game has given us a bit of insight into this particular situation. The Redskins were given the first spotlight of the regular season, facing the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. The challenge proved too tall to overcome the Skins took the 16-7 loss, but for those that watched the game, there were lessons learned that could be of benefit for fantasy owners in weeks to come.

Just before the season commenced, the Redskins announced veteran tackle Jon Jansen would be relegated to the backup position at right tackle, a spot he has filled as a starter for the bulk of his time, when healthy, in Washington, a team he joined in 1999. Affectionately known as Rock to teammates and friends, Jansen has held the tackle position down on the right side for some time, but this season has brought change. Instead, coach Jim Zorn has chosen to go with second-year player Stephon Heyer as his starter. The decision is not shocking by any means (Jansen has been a constant injury dilemma, missing much more time than desired over recent campaigns), but it leaves questions for those with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts on the fantasy roster.

Zorn has been quick to reward Heyer with praise for his work in pass protection, but you will not find a statement or quote noting his skills in opening interior rushing lanes. He made the team as an undrafted free agent, brought to camp as the local boy making good (he went to college at Maryland), and by the end of the season he was earning starting snaps. While pass protection will be his primary job, lined against defensive ends, scouts have noted shortcomings in technique that could present concerns on rushing downs.

In Week 1, we’ve already seen some of those worries come to fruition. Primary running back Clinton Portis picked up 23 carries, and with a career 4.5 yards-per-carry mark, fantasy owners should have been rewarded with more than 84 yards, and the total lack of scoring is a significant disappointment. Those who watched the predicament unfold may have recognized the pattern. The Giants, struggling with the loss of top pass rushers Osi Umenyiora and Michael Strahan, were using hybrid linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka as the weapon of choice against the run, starting him off on the Skins’ left side and letting him adjust to the play. Portis loves to run right, and that put Heyer in line with Kiwanuka, and he lost most of those battles.

You can guarantee the Saints will be doing the same with Jonathan Vilma next week, as will the Cardinals with Karlos Dansby and the Cowboys with DeMarcus Ware.

4. Can the Cincinnati offense survive the loss of fullback Jeremi Johnson?

Since joining the Bengals as a 4th-round draft pick in 2003, Johnson served as one of the more productive blocking fullbacks in the game and the numbers for those that enjoy the benefits of his work demonstrate a steady climb towards top rank at the position. To be fair, Cincy has, for much of that time, succeed in efforts to orchestrate a worthy offensive line as the primary source of support, but both the rushing and passing statistics from those seasons have been strong and JJ has been a primary contributor to it all.

Start with the calculations from the Cincinnati running backs. In ’03 Rudi Johnson emerged as a player to watch, following J-Johnson for the bulk of his 215 carries (sharing time with Corey Dillon, dismissed the following season) to average 4.5 yards per carry. In ‘04 Rudi was a force once again but was joined by Kenny Watson (in part due to minor injury woes), averaging 4.0 and an amazing 6.2 yards per carry respectively. In ’05 it was Chris Perry, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, working in tandem with Rudi, coming in at 4.3.

The 2006 season was the break in the string, but J-John rebounded last season in what may have been his best performance to date. Both tackles, Levi Jones and Willie Anderson (both perennial Pro-Bowl invitees), were lost to injury while the line struggled to recover from the fleecing of Eric Steinbach, lured to Cleveland for big dollars in free agency. Add continued failures in health for Rudi, limited to just 170 carries (many made while working at far less than 100%), and another disappointing effort would have been understandable. However, with the fullback picking up his level of play, Watson moved into a leading role and found success in the face of adversity, averaging an impressive 4.3 yards per carry.

Now consider the rising skills J-Johnson has been building in pass protection. During his rookie campaign in ’03, the Bengals allowed a troublesome 37 sacks to be absorbed by Jon Kitna. However, every season since (with the exception, once again, of ’06) has brought progress. In ’04 they lowered the sack total to 25 taken by Carson Palmer, and in ’05 in dropped again as Palmer absorbed just 19 sacks. Last season (remember, both starting tackles were missing significant time to injury, and they are directly charged with picking up the pass rush) Palmer endured just 17 sacks.

Those that watched realize Johnson was a primary source for that success, but the season ahead brings worry. J-Johnson has suffered an undisclosed knee injury in preparation for the Week-1 matchup with Baltimore, and he is expected to miss the entire season. That brings tremendous concerns for an offense opening against a team that allowed a paltry 79.3 rushing yards per game last season (also touting a respectable 32 sacks in ’07).

The Bengals have pushed converted tight end Daniel Coats into those duties, and while coach Marvin Lewis maintains confidence in his abilities, reports indicate the team has been scouring the waiver wire looking for a suitable replacement (ironically, just missing a change to hire perennial Pro Bowler Lorenzo Neal, snatched up by the Ravens). The scouting reports note Coats has receiving abilities and has shown strong potential to perform in pass protection, an experience he has endured as a tight end, but his skills in support of the run are lacking.

With Cincy shopping for support and all signs pointing to potential struggles for the run(not to mention the loss of Anderson at right tackle, released during the offseason), it would seem wise to avoid any temptation to insert either Chris Perry or Kenny Watson into the your starting fantasy rotation, and it is a concern that may prolong into the season if the Bengals fail to hire a more reliable option at the position.

5. How damaging will the loss of Bryant McKinnie be in Minnesota?

For six years, the Vikings have put a strong emphasis on the efforts to build an elite offensive line. That started with the addition of McKinnie, selected with the 7th-overall pick of the 2002 NFL Draft. Labeled as a dominating protector of quarterbacks during this time in the Miami (FL) system (a collegiate program rich in history when it comes to producing top NFL talents), along with center Matt Birk (rising from rank as a 6th-round pick in 1998 to become one of the top commodities at the position), tasked with leading a new beginning for an offense that had lost their way. Since that time there have been struggles, but McKinnie has earned respect as one of the elite performers among professional right tackles. He is a physical beast, listed at 6-foot-8, 335 lbs, and his strength is matched only by his technical abilities. He is the complete package, and he is lost for four games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy (fighting allegations stemming from a street brawl outside of a Miami nightclub in February).

While the typical contributor at left tackle tends to serve as the primary source of support for the pass, McKinnie is an absolute power in Minnesota’s rushing attack. He excels at breaking lanes through the interior of left side and driving those would-be tacklers around the side of the play, and those are gifts that allowed rookie rusher Adrian Peterson to become one of the most coveted players in fantasy football. On most teams, Peterson would have been a force, but it is fair to praise McKinnie for insuring each and every ounce of the wunderkind’s talents were maximized.

Now the Vikings are asking Artis Hicks to fill the void. Hicks is experienced but has logged the vast majority of his time at right guard, having served as a starter at that position for a nearly two seasons before the emergent Anthony Herrera forced his way into the starting lineup. McKinnie hasn’t missed a start since his rookie contract holdout lasted midway through the 2002 season, a string of 87 consecutive games.

The general consensus hold Hicks in higher regard when reviewing his pass protection skills, but a switch to the left side means he will be facing the elite defensive ends of the league. More importantly, Hicks fails to garner grades in support of the run that inspire hope. He is a functional blocker but lacks the athletic ability to work into the second level and contribute prolonged blocks that will eliminate those speed-rushing defenders. Scouts also note Hicks has struggled with interior bull rushers at defensive tackle, the players directly responsible for attack the running back.

Now consider Minnesota’s schedule. While McKinnie is serving his suspension, the Vikes will face Aaron Kampman and the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, followed by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis from Indianapolis. Week 3 will bring Julius Peppers and the Panthers to the Metrodome, followed by a trip to face Albert Haynesworth and the Tennessee Titans.

If you have just spent a 1st- or 2nd-overall fantasy pick to add Peterson to the roster, and you are banking on his prodigious talents to lead the way to early success, there is reason for significant concern. McKinnie will return and the world should be made right in time, but these first four weeks may prove detrimental.