Exploring the Base Rate Fallacy in the Scouts vs. Stats Debate

In this column we have previously discussed the old "scouts vs. stats" debate. For some reason, perhaps because it is an election year and we become more polarized, it seems that this debate has been waged more loudly and vehemently this year than in most. Another reason is the proliferation of pseudo-expert bloggers that have one area in which they consider themselves experts (though no one else does), and as a result attempt to justify their lack of knowledge of one by arguing that the other is irrelevant.

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